Because we seem to be headed for a replay of the same dynamic that prevailed in the early 2000 primaries, I thought it would be helpful to go back and take a second look at the exit poll from the ‘00 NH primary, which John McCain won by 18 points — 48.5% to 30.3% for then-Governor George W. Bush.
My recent posts notwithstanding, McCain looks to me like the prohibitive favorite in the Granite State. I was in New Hampshire for Bush. The night before, the race leaned slightly to McCain. In their weak moments, the volunteers on the guessed we’d fall short by 3 or 4 points. We lost by 18. There was a hidden vote for McCain on primary day that counted for as much as 15 points.
McCain will not get 49 percent — the also-rans are stronger this time — but 40 or 45 percent is not out of the question. To see why, we need only look to McCain’s amazing strength among virtually every subgroup in the 2000 primary, and the overall composition of the New Hampshire GOP electorate. In stark contrast to rest of the nation, it is very difficult for a candidate running as a conservative to win a Republican primary in the Northeast. McCain won every New England state except Maine against Bush in 2000, even Bush’s ancestral Connecticut.
With Obama failing to close the sale and McCain surging, independents will vote in large numbers in the Republican primary. After Romney’s increasingly likely victory in Iowa, the best I suspect he’ll be able to do is claim that as his “conference championship” win to advance to the finals, and raise a cloud of dust to limit the damage in New Hampshire. As Bush discovered in 2000 and Bob Dole discovered in ‘96, New Hampshire is strange and an outlier.
Here is a reminder of the scope of McCain’s win in New Hampshire, by the numbers:
- McCain won every county and all but a handful of small towns.
- McCain ran stronger among men, 57 percent of the primary electorate, winning by 50 to 28 percent.
- He won voters over 60 with 52 percent, and those over 65 with 54 percent. The formidable Mike Dennehy turnout operation has the blessing of being able to mobilize seniors, the highest-propensity voting group, who already identify with John McCain.
- He won college graduates, 52 percent of the electorate, by nearly 2-to-1, 53 to 28 percent.
- Barely 53 percent of the electorate “affiliated” with the Republican Party — though more were registered — and McCain took 38 percent of this most-conservative half of the electorate, running just three points behind Bush.
- Just 51 percent of GOP primary voters considered themselves conservative (that’s compared to 73 percent in the 2000 Iowa Caucuses). McCain edged Bush 37-35 percent with conservatives.
- McCain won 48 percent of Pat Buchanan voters.
- McCain won registered Republicans 44-35. That’s right: had this been a closed primary, McCain still would have won by nearly 10 points.
The underlying demographics are also tough for a Mitt Romney or a Mike Huckabee:
- Just 16 percent of voters considered themselves “religious right” — that number was 37 percent in Iowa.
- 20 percent were Born Again or Evangelical.
- Just 36 percent attended religious services weekly or more. 42 percent of voters nationally fell into this category, both Republican and Democrat. One imagines the number was well north of 50 percent for Bush voters.
What’s changed since 2000? For one thing, New Hampshire has become more Democratic as the footprint of Metro Boston continues to expand. The Republican Party has shrunk, leaving the GOP primary more apt to be influenced by independents. If anything, these unfolding trends only reinforce the likelihood of a McCain blowout on January 8th.